Usual grumbling

Photokina 2012 is over, and many prominent photobloggers wrote about it. It is amazing to see how two giant of the camera industry follow dinosaur's path. I would add Pentax to this group, too. Now full frame DSLR are the way to go. I see two main advantages of a DSLR: optical viewfinder and fast autofocus. Mirrorless camera will eventually close the gap on autofocus speed, so at some point the only advantage / difference will be an optical viewfinder. Full frame DSLRs generally have very good  (big and bright) viewfinder, while on cameras with smaller sensors viewfinders can be less attractive. On other hand, DSLRs are big, the lenses are big, and mirror slaps can shake the camera. DSLRs do have "ultimate" quality, both for image and handling. Put camera on tripod, add good lens, and this would get the best landscape shot. Add tele lens and go for wildlife or shoot birds in flight. 

However, I argue that image quality on modern DSLRs is very high, and probably exceeds requirements of an average user. Some people need more resolution or want to shoot in complete darkness,  but many photographers are happy with images from their currents cameras such as D7000 or K-5. What improvement of APS-C/DX cameras can convince people to replace their current models? The answer from the big players: full frame sensor. The megapixel war is over, high iso war is probably also over, and all mainstream DSLRs can record movies in these days. Well, Pentax had announced two new APS-C DSLRs on Photokina but Nikon, Canon and Sony all went full frame. The message is clear: buy a full frame camera (and buy new lenses if you come from "cropped" sensor and dedicated optics).

Just a few years ago the only way to get good image quality at affordable cost was APS-C DSLR cameras but now we have several alternatives. Compact cameras with big sensor such as Fuji X100 or Sigma DP1M / DP2M produce images of very high quality. Compact system cameras, or mirrorless cameras with interchangeable lenses provide a smaller alternative to DSLR with some compromises. Than there is a  growing class of advanced compact cameras with very bright lens and relatively big sensor such as Fuji 10 or Olympus XZ-2, while not in the same league but still very capable cameras. These "DSLR alternatives" are waiting for improvements in some areas such as autofocus speed or development of a "global shutter". So, it seems that we have "ultimate perfect cameras" - DSLRs - where it is hard to improve anything related to photographic process, and a broad group of other cameras that can produce high quality images but lugging behind DSLR in some areas. While it might take some time, the improvements will eventually happen because of the demand / pressure from consumers. 

For people like me who don't need ultra-fast autofocus, the mirrorless cameras such as new Olympus E-PL5 is a real blessing. It is small, has very good sensor, the same as in Olympus OM-D E-M5, and it is reasonably priced. Personally I prefer Fuji X-E1, which is heavier, bigger, and expensive, but it has a perfect set of buttons. I also hooked on Fuji JPEGs after using a X10 for about a year. On other hand, Olympus E-PL5 has tiltable touch screen that probably can compensate for the lack of external controls. I expect in Australia Olympus E-PL5 kit will cost twice less than Fuji X-E1, so it is very tempting to give it a try considering that the camera is equipped with arguably the best current m4/3 sensor. Still, buying into Fuji X system will be cheaper than any full frame route.  

The affordable full frame DSLR will affect sales of top APS-C DSLR models and depress prices of all DSLR (companies probably want set a reasonable price for full frame models to lure the customers, and also need to differentiate their cameras, so if D7000 price goes down, than the next model also should go down etc). With resources diverted to the development of full frame cameras, the "life span" of APS-C DSLRs will be longer. In meantime, compact system cameras undergo a rapid development in all categories: Olympus announced replacement of entry-level PEN models, E-PL5 and E-PM2, Panasonic came with high-end GH3, Fuji made reasonably priced advanced X-E1, Sony demonstrated very attractive NEX-6 with EVF that might be more attractive than their top model, NEX-7. All these companies also showed quite a few new lenses, plus top lens makers announced development of their products for mirrorless cameras. Even now CSCs are attractive to broad range of photographers, so at some point these cameras will impact DSLRs sales, too, and the APS-C models will be the first victims.

The last dinosaurs, their were big... But rats were more successful.